PPIAF Traffic Risk Brief: Models for Allocating Traffic Risk
Low traffic volume, and the low toll revenues that result, contribute greatly to the failure of toll road public-private partnerships (PPPs). This risk has several sources, including forecasting error, uncertainty inherent to the forecasting process, and bias. While some level of traffic risk will always be present in highway PPPs, governments, the private sector, and financiers can take steps to reduce and manage this risk through robust forecasting techniques and selecting the appropriate project structure.