Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?
This global study of 258 transport projects finds that, on average, actual costs were 28 percent higher than planned costs—65 percent higher for projects outside Europe and North America. The paper describes technical, psychological, and political explanations for this result.
Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Søren L. Buhl. 2002. “Underestimating Costs in Public Works Project: Error or Lie?.” Journal of the American Planning Association 68(3) 279-295. [#2206]